In a newly released investor Pay attentionOne of the oldest US investment banks, HC Wainwright & Co. – which was founded in 1868, predicts a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. According to the note, the institution has changed its previous bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 from $145,000 to $225,000, underpinned by a confluence of historical trends, macroeconomic indicators and emerging regulatory and institutional factors.
“We estimate that Bitcoin will reach a cycle high of $225,000 by 2025,” the firm said, citing both market cycles and the potential for a regulatory landscape for the digital asset in the United States in 2025 under a new administration.
Why could Bitcoin hit $225,000 by the end of the year?
HC Wainwright's analysis highlights several pivotal forces driving Bitcoin's growth trajectory. One important catalyst is the wider availability of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, a development that could unlock new waves of institutional capital. The company also cites “accelerating institutional and corporate investor adoption” as a key factor in its bullish outlook.
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In addition, investment bank models assume a general market backdrop that improves in tandem with global liquidity and reduces any regulatory excess. HC Wainwright carefully notes that forecasting is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, especially measurement Money supply M2which has been on a downward trend since October.
Although HC Wainwright predicts a high six-figure price by 2025, Bitcoin's path to $225,000 is unlikely to be a smooth one. In this report, the bank warned: “About 20 to 30 percent reduction in length Cattle markets Not unusual (…) We estimate that Bitcoin could return to the $70,000 range in early 1Q25 before resuming its uptrend.
They attribute these potential pullbacks to Bitcoin's historical volatility and its correlation with global liquidity trends.
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If Bitcoin reaches $225,000 per coin, HC Wainwright predicts a total Bitcoin market cap of roughly $4.5 trillion, about 25% of gold's current $18 trillion market cap. This scenario translates to a 113% increase over current levels. However, the note adds a notable scenario not yet included in its original forecast:
“Our new 2025 price target does not factor in the potential for the US government to officially accept Bitcoin as a federal treasury reserve asset next year. If implemented, we believe it is likely that Bitcoin will significantly exceed our target price.
The institute's analysis also extends to the broader cryptocurrency market. Historically, Bitcoin Dominance (its share of the total market value of digital currencies) At the peak of the market, it tends to decline, falling to the lower 40% range near the last peak of the bull cycle in November 2021.
Looking ahead, HC Wainwright expects Bitcoin's dominance to fall to 45% by the end of 2025, down from around 56% currently. Based on this assumption, the company sees the total crypto market growing from $3.6 trillion today to around $10 trillion by the end of 2025.
HC Wainwright's coverage of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies is benefiting from anticipated price increases. “If our projections are correct, there is the potential for significant upward revisions to our coverage universe over the coming year.”
At press time, BTC was trading at $96,221.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
