Bitcoin (BitcoinAccording to the latest version, if the price repeats the bull run of 2017, it will reach a peak of $290,000 in early 2026.Bitfinex alpha” report.
Forecasting is based on historical price patterns during bullish cycles, institutional acceptance and key technical indicators.
After a bear market low in November 2022, Bitcoin bounced back strongly in 2023 with a 155.5% gain.
The current bullish cycle began in mid-to-late 2023, fueled by the anticipation of the Bitcoin halving event in 2024, which is historically a bullish year before.
Additionally, the report attributes the cycle's strength to institutional buying pressure and the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, which have provided steady demand and limited the scale and duration of market corrections.
Cycle patterns
In the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin's largest correction was 33.2%, while the 2020 cycle saw a decline of 27.1%. In the current cycle, reforms have been more restrained due to increased institutional interest, further stabilizing the market.
A key tool for predicting Bitcoin price peaks, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically pinpointed cycle peaks with remarkable accuracy. This indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).
In previous cycles, when the 111DMA crosses the 350DMAx2, Bitcoin has usually reached a significant price peak. The report highlights that this crossover could happen as early as June 29, 2025, if the pattern of the 2021 cycle repeats, or as late as January 28, 2026, in a scenario that mirrors the long cycle of 2017.
Price prediction
Based on historical performance, Bitcoin has been significantly above its moving average during bullish periods. In 2017, it traded three times its moving average value at its peak. However, returns have declined as BTC matures, indicating more conservative price predictions.
According to Bitfinex, if Bitcoin follows the path of 2021, it could rise 40% above its moving average to a price of around $339,000.
However, given the weak returns, Bitcoin may rise 15-20% above its moving average, peaking in the $160,000-$200,000 range by mid-2025. Meanwhile, if the 2017 cycle is less likely to repeat itself, Bitcoin could reach around $290,000 by early 2026.
While historical indicators suggest the most likely scenario is between $160,000 and $290,000, the path to these heights will depend on market maturity, ETF adoption and macro macroeconomic conditions, the report said.